Lebanon’s new government leads to new, more promising phase: Analysts

“Lebanon faces a unique window of opportunity, where Hezbollah is weakened and no longer in a position to derail reform efforts or enforce its will on the country’s decision-making process,” one analyst says”

“Lebanon faces a unique window of opportunity, where Hezbollah is weakened and no longer in a position to derail reform efforts or enforce its will on the country’s decision-making process,” Randa Slim, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), told Al Arabiya English.

A crucial deadline is fast approaching: on February 18, Israel is expected to withdraw its forces from Lebanon. Beirut has pledged to deploy the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) along the border with Israel to coordinate with the UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) to ensure Hezbollah’s fighters and weapons are removed from the area. The United States has stressed the need for Israel’s full withdrawal after the yearlong war between Hezbollah and Israel. The original deadline for the end of January was extended by the US, which brokered and mediated the deal last November. Officials familiar with US intelligence told Al Arabiya English the LAF’s deployment in the south significantly increased over the last few weeks. Deputy Special Presidential Envoy for Middle East Peace Morgan Ortagus toured the southern part of Lebanon during her visit with the US delegation this week.

In his first comments after the new government was announced, Salam emphasized that reform would be the priority, which requires both security and stability. This, he stated, would be achieved by fully implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the US-brokered ceasefire agreement that ended the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Salam committed to ensuring that Israel withdraws “to the last inch of Lebanese territory.” Reconstruction of areas devastated by Israeli bombardment will also be a primary focus, signaling the new government’s commitment to not abandoning Hezbollah’s Shia allies in the Amal Movement.

Both Salam and President Joseph Aoun have been clear about their intention to ensure the state’s monopoly over all weapons and arms, a stance that directly challenges Hezbollah, which has controlled Lebanon’s war and peace decisions for decades. Hezbollah has also used its weapons internally against Lebanese citizens and politicians and has been accused of being behind dozens of assassinations, in coordination with the former Assad regime.

The American Task Force on Lebanon (ATFL) said it anticipated the new government would prioritize the full implementation of the ceasefire, including the disarmament of militias throughout the country. “We are at a key juncture in Lebanon’s recovery,” ATFL President Ed Gabriel said. “I hope these important first steps by the government will help put the country back on its feet and guarantee its security and independence.”

Top US officials recently visited Beirut and reiterated that the Trump administration did not want Hezbollah to be represented in the new government. They also expressed dissatisfaction with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal Movement retaining control of the finance ministry, a position Berri has held since 2014. Ultimately, however, Hezbollah and Amal both secured ministries, with Berri’s pick remaining in charge of finance.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah no longer has veto power or what is referred to as a “blocking third” in third in the government after its Christian allies, the Free Patriotic Movement, were excluded.

Firas Maksad, Senior Fellow and Director for Strategic Outreach at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, noted that while the new government involved some compromises, “the election of President Aoun and the selection of Nawaf Salam as prime minister undoubtedly herald a new and more promising phase for Lebanon.”

The US quickly welcomed the new government and called for a ministerial statement that would help Lebanon “turn the corner and chart a path toward rebuilding state institutions, fighting corruption, and implementing crucial reforms.” The White House referred Al Arabiya English to the statement from the US Embassy in Beirut, which also commended Salam’s comments “to ensure security and stability in Lebanon by completing the implementation of UNSCR 1701 and obligations under the cessation of hostilities.”